The New York Yankees want Manny Machado. Reports surfaced Wednesday that the Yankees have made an offer to the Baltimore Orioles about their superstar, free-agent-to-be shortstop. But wait, don’t the Yankees need starting pitching? They could certainly use a starter, but to ignore Machado in favor a lesser player would be a mistake. In fact, the Yankees need Manny Machado if they want to put themselves in the best position to win the World Series. Let’s break down all the reasons they need him and should want him.
They Don’t Need A Quality Starter
First, let’s diffuse the idea that they need to be all in on starting pitching. The struggles of the rotation are pretty much exclusive to Sonny Gray, who has greatly underachieved. Entering Thursday, they are 52-21 when Gray does not start. That’s a .712 winning percentage or a 115-win season. They are a ridiculous 39-5 when a starter goes six innings. They don’t need a No. 2-type starter. It’s all about Sonny Gray’s struggles, not the starters as a whole. They don’t need to go all in on starting pitching to find a suitable upgrade or put themselves in a better position to win games.
Additionally, Yankees have the best bullpen in the majors. The current collection of relievers the Yankees employ is possibly the most talented ever assembled. They have the bullpen every contender can only wish for. The 2015 Kansas City Royals had terrible starting pitching and won the World Series. The 2016 Cleveland Indians were a win away from the title even though Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar were on the disabled list.
Starting pitching did not finish the Yankees last season in the playoffs, it was an offense that struggled in Houston, scoring only three runs in four games. They could have used more offense. The 2009 Yankees and 2017 Houston Astros showed what a formidable lineup could mean in October. Adding Machado would give the Yankees that type of formidable lineup.
He’s The Best Player Available
One of the fallacies of team building is that when a team looks to add to a position of weakness, they ignore other possible avenues for improvement. The Yankees, thankfully, did not succumb to this in the 2017-18 offseason. Their pursuit of high-end starting pitching, whether it was Shohei Ohtani or Gerrit Cole, did not materialize. They pivoted to Giancarlo Stanton, even though they already had the big league’s best outfield in terms of fWAR in 2017, AL MVP runner-up Aaron Judge in right field and plenty of talented right-handed hitters in the organization. Stanton is redundant, but he makes the Yankees better because he is a great player, and that is all that matters.
It’s the same situation with Manny Machado. The four-time All-Star is right-handed, hits for power and plays both shortstop and third base. The Yankees already have Didi Gregorius at short and one of the better rookie hitters, Miguel Andujar, playing third. Adding Machado makes the team better because Machado is the best player available.
Andujar Shouldn’t Block Machado
Miguel Andujar has established himself as a fine hitter. He has a .279/.313/.495 slash line with a 117 wRC+. Those are excellent marks for a rookie hitter. The problem is that he doesn’t play much defense and that Machado is simply a much better player right now. Arguably, Machado would represent a bigger upgrade for the team than displacing German or Gray from the rotation because Machado is one of the premier position players in the sport.
The Yankees have been saving money over the last few offseasons is preparation for the 2018-19 free agent class. It’s the big reason why they stayed under the $197 million luxury tax. They have set themselves up for a run at Machado in the offseason if they wish to do so and it looks like that will be the case. This is a reason that comes up in why the Yankees should not trade for Machado because why give up prospects when they could sign him to a contract a few months later?
The answer is that they could potentially be giving themselves an edge against other potential suitors in the winter by having him on the team to finish the 2018 season. The reason the Arizona D’Backs could not re-sign J.D. Martinez was that they did not have enough money and were not convinced he was worth what he would eventually receive from the Boston Red Sox. That will not be an issue for the Yankees and Machado.
The Yankees, as currently constructed, may not be better than the Red Sox. Adding one of the best starters available, such as J.A. Happ, may help, but not as much as Machado would. If the Yankees want to field the best team possible and put themselves in a better position in the future, it includes Manny Machado.
Robinson Cano linked to the Yankees?
In today’s episode of Locked on Yankees, Stacey discusses the Yankees and Robinson Cano, she looks at how the Yankees were shopping Justus Sheffield to a few teams before he ultimately landed with the Mariners and she takes you around the league.
Yankees year in review | The bullpen
Welcome to Yankees Year in Review. This is the fourth and final installment and to round out our year in review, we look at the bullpen.
The Yankees bullpen was arguably their crown jewel. Ask any baseball fan why the Yankees could make it to and win world series and they would immediately and emphatically point to the Yankees bullpen.
There were holdovers from the successful 2017 bullpen: Tommy Kahnle, David Robertson, Chad Green, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman. But relievers are somewhat unpredicatble and sustained year-to-year performance is not a guarantee. Let’s use Dellin Betances as an example.
Betances in 2017 was coming off a three-year run where he was worth at least 2.4 fWAR. So, it made sense that he was a key reliever for high-leverage situations coming into the season. Betances performed fine in the regular season, with his September and October signaling trouble. His walk rate spiked while his strikeout rate declined. He developed issues against righties, especially when it came to issuing walks. He was an unstable quantity in the playoffs, alternating between good and awful. There were concerns about 2018.
The truth was somewhere in the middle. Betances was not as bad as 2017, nor was he as dominant as that three-year run. He was more consistent, with a tight grip on the setup role and picking up saves when Aroldis Chapman went down with an injury.
Speaking of Chapman, he seemed to bounce back from a slightly disappointing 2017. Still, his walk rate continued to climb, all the way to 5.26 BB/9. His strikeouts were back up, with a 16.31 K/9, second highest of his career.
Two things, both probably related, to know about Chapman. His fastball velocity was down, maybe due to his injury during the year. His fastball pitch value was his lowest since reaching the MLB in 2010 at 5.3, almost half the value it was worth in 2017. His fastball has long been the most important pitch in his arsenal since he has never shown consistent command of his slider. He can still reach triple digits but last year seemed like the first time where 100mph was not a guarantee.
That last section in 2018 is not great. Sure, pitchers who throw 96mph still do fine, but every mph decrease gives hitters just a little bit more time, so Chapman’s margin for error is slowly shrinking. By the way, there are three more years left on his contract. There is real potential for the next few years to get ugly.
David Robertson finished his second stint with the Yankees with a strong year. His ERA of 3.23 may look elevated for a reliever and it is slightly higher than his career average, but he was still a valuable contributor. His fastball pitch value was -2.6, the 2nd lowest of his career but everything from K/9, HR/9 etc. were within career norms.
Then I found his left on base percentage. It was 67.5%, 11% lower than his career average. Meaning he was not stranding runners at nearly the same rate, which could explain the spike in his ERA. He enters the offseason as a free agent and will represent himself. I would predict the Yankees to stay in to contact and offer maybe a two-year contract but given his age (34 in 2019), it would be hard to see him getting much more in terms of guaranteed years.
Chad Green came up as a starter in the minors, but his 2018 solidified that he belongs in the bullpen. Green was the third most valuable reliever in terms of fWAR. Manager Aaron Boone regularly deployed him for more than one inning and Green was up to the challenge.
His K/9, BB/9 all stayed within his career averages. His home run per nine innings did double from 2017, but still stayed respectable at 1.07 HR/9. Given everything written above, it is hard to say Green is going to absolutely repeat this performance. But he is still young (28 in 2019) and could be in line to take over the later inning roles if Chapman or Betances falter.
Jonathan Holder was somewhat of a pleasant surprise, seeing several high leverage situations. His performance can probably be explained by his home run per nine innings getting sliced down to .55 in 2018 from 1.14 in 2017. That really is it. He does not induce groundballs, his strikeout per nine is good but not elite for a reliever.
Holder possessed a flyball rate of 50.5%, which is extremely confusing for someone who just posted an elite home run per nine innings rate. Here is a chart of all the relievers in the last three calendar years who have done what Holder just did:
Four relievers, that is it. On one hand, there is Kenley Jansen! On the other hand, that was Ryan Buchter and Brian Ellington’s best years as major leaguers. Ellington pitched seven innings last year in the minors, while Buchter pitched for the Athletics but was just okay.
The point is that this does not seem like the most sustainable profile for Holder. The best case is something like Jansen and he is an elite closer due to his ability to strike batters out, something that Holder does not do nearly as well.
This is where I would say something about Tommy Kahnle since in 2017 he was a reliable arm for later innings. But as is the pattern of this article, he had some issues that led to a step back in performance. He had shoulder tendonitis and when he returned there was a reoccurrence of some flaws from his earlier years like a higher walk rate and an increase in home runs allowed. His velocity was down as well. He will need to work back to be trusted with high leverage situations in 2019.
Zach Britton was acquired at the deadline and strengthened the back end of the bullpen despite returning from injury. He continued to post a ridiculous groundball rate but walked a lot of batters while not striking out as many. Still, he was trusted with high leverage situations down the stretch and could still be an above average reliever.
The rest of the bullpen will get more of a rapid-fire treatment: Adam Warren was effective but traded to Seattle for international bonus slot money. Luis Cessa was injured and shuttled between long man and back-end starter. A.J. Cole had a good run from May to July but reverted to being A.J. Cole with a 7.91 ERA in the second half. Chasen Shreve’s contribution would be that he was eventually packaged with Giovanny Gallegos for Luke Voit, for that Yankee fans everywhere are thankful. Lance Lynn handled some relief innings and was completely serviceable.
Robertson, Britton, and Lynn are all free agents. It is reasonable to believe the Yankees might pursue all three, given their importance to the 2018 team. Otherwise, the bullpen should be relatively set in stone and continue to be a strength going forward.
Machado clarifies, diving into the Paxton trade and much more
In today’s episode of Locked on Yankees, Manny Machado clarifies his “Johnny Hustle” comments, Stacey goes a little more in depth with regards to the James Paxton trade, she updates you on some trade rumors and we’re celebrating Ken Griffey Jr’s 49th birthday.